2009 Wildcard Weekend Picks

I think this is the first time in NFL history that the first weekend of the playoffs will feature 3 repeat matchups from the last weekend of the regular season. I'm not sure what that means, but there you have it.

Edited Friday, January 8 at 12:13 pm to add: Reader Mike Fearon shared the following link/information with me: http://www.bookofodds.com/Daily-Life-Activities/Sports/Articles/A0526-Wildcard-Rematch-es-What-are-the-odds. It's a fascinating article that actually gives the odds of this situation and compares it to the odds of other real-life occurrences to give some context. You should definitely check it out! Thanks, Mike!

Eagles/Cowboys - Well, there's been the usual Philly sports media tempest in a teapot about McNabb's recent comments. What did he say that was so horrible? Quoting Philly.com:

"On Sunday, McNabb was asked whether the Eagles showed their youth. He answered in part that he felt they did, "in situations where everyone began to look around to see who was going to make the play, rather than stepping up and making that play. That's something that comes with the territory, when you have a young group . . . all throughout the year, we've had guys step up and make big plays for us when their name's called, and today it just didn't happen."

The way I see it, the Eagles *did* look like a bunch of young guys who were playing in their first really big game last Sunday. Sure, Don needs to make a play, but somebody has to catch the damn ball, and the coaches need to call plays that put us in a position to be successful.

And, once again quoting Philly.com:

"It all starts with me," McNabb said yesterday.

"I have to raise my level of play," he said yesterday, but then he kept going with this:

"And everyone else has to, as well."

Followed by the editorial comment: "Ugh."

Really? Big5 saying that everyone needs to step it up Saturday if we hope to walk away with a win merits an "Ugh" from Sam Donnellon? I guess he thinks everyone else played great Sunday and Don was the only one doing anything wrong. I also guess he must've watched a different game than I watched.

Moral of the story? Don't read the Philly sports media.

I did promise blog fan Chris that I'd give some hope.

Here's hope point 1: it's damn near IMpossible (Freudian slip? I hope not!) to beat any team 3 times in the same season. Particularly a division opponent. Particularly two weeks in a row.

Here's hope point 2: Andy Reid has never lost his first game in the playoffs. Nor has Donovan McNabb.

Here's hope point 3: the Cowboys haven't won a playoff game since before I lived in DC. Wade Phillips and Tony Romo have never won a playoff game together.

Here's hope point 4: we don't have to worry that they've totally scoped our game plan because we didn't show them anything on Sunday.

Here's hope point 5: the entire NFL Total Access team called us to win. As I believe Marshall Faulk said, "The Eagles play best when their backs are against the wall. Which is why I picked them to lose last week, and why I'm picking them to win this week."

Here's hope point 6: after sneaking by us earlier and spanking us on Sunday, the Cowboys HAVE to be overconfident. Right?

OK, in all seriousness, I am very worried about this game. We were so flat last week it was scary. We can't play that badly two weeks in a row, right? Not with so much on the line, right? We can't be the team to end the Cowboys playoff drought, right?

I'm cautiously hopeful right now. And I think we'll know which way this is going to go within the first 10 minutes of the game. If it's not going our way, you might have to talk me down off the 14th Street bridge.

Packers/Cardinals: You know how it's hard to beat a team two weeks in a row? Not for the Packers. I don't think the Cards have the firepower on D to take down the Packers. Of course, I didn't buy the Cardinals hype last year, and look how that turned out. But I'm still calling the Packers.

Ravens/Patriots: The Pats are not looking so untouchable now that their defense is weak-ass and Tom Brady gets knocked down. At this time of the year, it tends to come down to guts, balls, and who's clutch. The Ravens win on two of those, and, I think, win this game.

Bengals/Jets: Have I mentioned how annoyed I am that the Jets got a gimme against the Colts in week 16, which is the only reason they were even in the running for the playoffs? Because I'm still really, really annoyed. I would love to see Ocho Cinco and the Bengals win a playoff game. They've only even *been* to the playoffs three times in the past 20 years. And they lost their first game one of those times. And it was the most recent visit (2005 season). I'm calling Bengals, but it's more hope than confidence. Also, picking all 4 wildcard teams seems nuts.

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Wildcard Weekend Schedule: January 9-10, 2010

Wildcard Weekend schedule:

Saturday, January 9
4:30 pm - Jets/Bengals
8 pm - Eagles/Cowboys

Sunday, January 10
1 pm - Ravens/Patriots
4:30 pm - Packers/Cardinals

Menu: Chef Spouse is feeling ambitious and planning to make big meals for both Saturday and Sunday. Saturday will be Popeye's fried chicken. Sunday, he's thinking about Chinese.

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So how'd I do?

It's time for my annual Post of Shame, aka, when I own up to picking REALLY REALLY badly.

AFC East

I picked: Dolphins
Actual winners: Patriots

And the Fins aren't even in the playoffs. Sigh.

AFC North

I picked: Steelers
Actual winners: Bengals

In my defense , NO ONE saw that coming. And the Steelers, also, aren't even in the playoffs.

AFC South

I picked: Texans
Actual winners: Colts

The Texans, also, are not in the playoffs. But they ALMOST made it in and finished over .500 for the first time! Team of Destiny!

AFC West

I picked: Chargers
Actual winners: Chargers

I got one! I got one!

AFC Wildcard

I picked: Colts and Ravens
Actual winners: Ravens and Jets

In my defense, I *did* point out that the Colts and the Ravens could easily win their divisions, leaving the Texans and Steelers going in as wildcards.

As usual, The Snark gets punked by the AFC.

NFC East

I picked: Eagles
Actual winner: Cowboys

Oh man, does that rankle.

NFC North

I picked: Lions
Actual winner: Vikings

I have no excuse for that pick. I must've been hitting the gin pretty hard that night.

NFC South

I picked: Falcons
Actual winner: Saints

Ah well, at least the Falcons put together their first ever back to back winning seasons. Which is poor comfort for me.

NFC West

I picked: Cardinals
Actual winner: Cardinals

Apparently, I can only pick correctly in the weakest divisions in the NFL. That's pretty discouraging.

NFC Wildcard

I picked: Cowboys and Saints
Actual winners: Eagles and Packers

OK, I got 4 teams in the top 6 right. Just mostly in the wrong order.

And you wonder why I'm not making a paying career out of this :)

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Let the Beheadings Begin

Black Monday, aka The Annual Firing of the Coaches

It's like the Running of the Bulls, only with more blood shed.

Jim Zorn was the first casualty, getting fired pretty much in the middle of the night. Hell, he's probably lucky lil' Danny Snyder let him fly home from California with the team. And Mike Shanahan's in. Yeah, that's going to go well. Maybe he and Bruce Allen can stand up to the Boyking. But I doubt it. On the upside, Shanny, think about how good your head will feel one you stop ramming it into that brick wall in a few years.

The Bills fired everyone. Including the guy who drives the team bus.

There's a fair amount of speculation that Eric Mangini will be out once Mike Holmgren actually arrives in Cleveland. I think that's premature. He didn't have much to work with, and look at how successful the Redskins have been jerking a young, potentially talented QB around under a zillion head coaches and offensive systems. The Browns are going to waste Brady Quinn's talent the way the Redskins have wasted Jason Campbell's if they're not careful.

Tom Cable should be out. Aside from the fact that he's a violent asshole...well, that's pretty much all you need. He's a violent asshole who needs therapy. And maybe jail. Not necessarily in that order.

I would think that Jeff Fisher and Lovie Smith would be in trouble, were it not for the fact that they seem to be beloved. You know Andy Reid is envious. "Can't a pudgy brother get a little love over here?" No, Big Red. Sorry. You're coaching in Philly.

I think the rookie head coaches who were brought in to bad teams and had rough seasons as a result - Raheem Morris, Steve Spagnuolo, Todd Haley, Jim Schwartz - are safe. At least for now.

Jack Del Rio seems to be safe, too, although the Jags have consistently underperformed, and he probably shouldn't be. If it were up to me, I might ditch Tom Coughlin. The Giants did have some injuries to deal with, but the players seem to dislike him heartily, and can you blame them? Wade Phillips and Norv Turner could be in trouble if their teams fare badly in the playoffs. (Please God, let us be the ones who ensure the Cowboys fare badly!)

Who wants back in?

There's continuing speculation about Jon Gruden, Marty Schottenheimer, Brian Billick, and Bill Cowher. Gruden swears on a stack of Lombardi Trophies that he's happy commentating for ESPN. Why wouldn't he be? He's sharing a press box with Jaws.

The Schott claims to be too old. Maybe. He also got treated really poorly by the Chargers, and that still has to smart.

I think Cowher's the most likely to come back. He's been rumored to be shopping for assistants, and if John Fox gets it (and even with that late season winning streak he might), Cowher doesn't even have to move.

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2009 Week 17 Recap

Eagles at Cowboys, Sunday, January 3, 2010

In attendance: Chef Spouse, Shoegal, Ex-Navy Cheesehead. And sweet, sweet booze. Thank God.

Menu: ham, scalloped potatoes, veg casserole. And did I mention the booze?

Stud of the week: Am I allowed to pick no one? Life-Long Eagles Fan Mom pointed out that the only good thing the Philly sportscasters could say about the game was: "Sav Rocca wasn't bad." Oy. Also, Asante Samuel tipped a pass that Joselio Hanson came down with. We did nothing with it but waste a timeout lining up for a punt, but it was pretty much the only highlight of the game.

As You-Two-Calm-Down-or-I'm-Turning-Off-the-TV Dad pointed out, we should probably issue an APB for the Eagles. Who were those guys in the green jerseys yesterday, and what did they do with our team?

We literally could not do a single thing right. The line couldn't protect McNabb. When they did, receivers couldn't get open. When they did, McNabb couldn't get the ball to them. When he did, they couldn't catch it. When they did, they couldn't move the chains.

For chrissakes, Andy Reid decided to go for the 53 yard field goal rather than going for it on 4-2 on the Cowboys 35. And Akers MISSED.

Maclin ran the wrong route at least twice on key plays. "5 and Dime" turned into "keep the change" as McNabb did the impossible, overthrowing Peanut. Twice. We had ONE red zone possession. In the ENTIRE game. And a bad Nick Cole snap led to a fumble that poor O-line play didn't even allow Big5 time to pick up.

And why weren't we blitzing more? Our D let us get way too far behind in the first half. Then we dumped the run entirely and everyone tried to do too much every single offensive play in the second half. There was no "Catch ball --> secure ball --> try to get some YAC --> try to move the sticks." No, it became, "I HAVE TO SCORE A TD ALL BY MYSELF RIGHT NOW ON THIS PLAY NOWNOWNOW!" for everyone.

Did they not understand that we were supposed to WIN THIS week so we could REST NEXT week? Did the Cowboys training staff sneakily mix up our Gatorade with vodka rather than water? I'm not usually one to blame the coaches - it's the players who are on the field needing to, you know, MAKE PLAYS - but when the ENTIRE team shows up completely unready to play, that's on the coaches. Who have 6 days to pull their heads out of their asses and figure this thing out.

Now, instead of getting to chill while watching the Vikings beat the Cowboys over mai tais in the Akers' rumpus room, we have to go BACK to Dallas and do it ourselves.

At least we don't have to worry that the Cowboys have already seen all our good stuff, since they've seen NONE of our good stuff. Hell, we could complete a screen pass for 5 yards, and the Cowboys would be like, "Where did THAT come from?" Ah well, as Chef Spouse pointed out, at least none of our guys cried.

Around the rest of the NFL...

Bills over Colts. Told you. Also, how awesome was it to watch Blizzard Bowl 2010? Also, Peyton Manning's looked like he's snacking on ground glass on the sidelines the past two weeks. Sure, 16-0 was meaningless. RIIIIIIGHT. The Colts are going down in the first playoff game - as usual. You read it here first.

Panthers over Saints. OK, they didn't play their starters, and the Cowboys are tougher than we thought (thinking back to their first lost game). I still think the Saints peaked too early and will also lose their first playoff game. Which means it's really a bugger that we're not sitting at #2 and looking ahead to hosting the NFC Championship Game in an outdoor stadium in the northeast in January as God intended.

Browns over Jags. Man, it's too bad I skipped the office football pool this week - I was on a roll. Well, other than that whole Eagles/Cowboys debacle.

Texans over Pats. The big news from this game, other than the Texans having their first winning season EVER, is that the Pats have likely lost Wes Welker for the playoffs. Yeah, they weren't going to the show this year anyway.

Vikings over Giants. Life-Long Eagles Fan asked me today, "What do you think happened to the Giants this year?" Two things: no Plax and no Spags. And Bill Sheridan's already been fired.

49ers over Rams. "And with the #1 pick in the 2010 NFL draft, the St. Louse Rams choose..." Well, since they need EVERYTHING, really anyone would be a good choice. But if it were up to me, I'd take Ndamukong Suh.

Falcons over Bucs. The Falcons just pulled off their first back-to-back winning seasons EVER. Ponder that for a minute if you need something to talk you down off the ledge after 24-0.

Steelers over Dolphins. Well, it's a good thing the Dolphins are out of the playoffs because they are completely out of quarterbacks. Good timing, I guess.

Bears over Lions. Oh yeah, Jay Cutler can kick ass. When it doesn't matter. Whose decision was it to get him again? GM Jerry Angelo? Black Monday's usually for coaches, but....

Chiefs over Broncos. How the hell do you roll over for the CHIEFS at HOME with the playoffs on the line? Also, Brandon Marshall's probably gone.

Ravens over Raiders. When it became clear that there was no way we had any chance of getting our shit together, I tried to convince Chef Spouse to switch us over to this game, which was close and hard fought and also had playoff implications. I was unsuccessful and had to suffer through our ENTIRE game. What good is the Sunday Ticket if I can't use it to avoid having to watch a 3 hour train wreck?

Titans over Seahawks. The only interesting thing about this game is that Chris Johnson went over 2,000 yards for the season, becoming only the 6th player in history to do so.

Chargers over Redskins. Even without their starters. Ouch.

Packers over Cardinals. Yeesh.

Jets over Bengals. Another shut out leading to another wildcard weekend rematch. And even though the Bengals starters played, I'm still pissed that the Jets were even in consideration because the Colts took last week off. It's totally unfair. I hope the Bengals kill 'em next week.

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2009 Week 17 Picks

Win and in. Well, actually, we're already *in* but the seeding is still open. And there are other ways to the #2 seed. But the simplest way, the one I like best, is win it & get it.

I'm not saying that it's going to be easy to beat the Cowboys. Not by a long shot. They seem to have mastered their December woes, pulling off decisive wins over the Saints and Redskins in the last two weeks. Tony Romo is settling down behind the biggest offensive line in football. Their offense is clicking well behind Romo-favorite targets Jason Witten and Miles Austin. On the other side of the ball, Jay Ratliff is a big threat up the middle, and we just lost our center for the season. That neck injury doesn't seem to be bothering DeMarcus Ware too much, either.

On the other hand, we're playing pretty well too, with a 6 game winning streak. And most of them have been close games (OK, we *made* some of them close games when they didn't have to be). Which, you'll notice, we've learned how to win, even though we have a bumper crop of rookies and sophomores on our team. That's good practice for the playoffs, since you don't get a whole lot of blow outs once the crap teams are out of the picture.

If our O-line can protect McNabb - or he can scramble - well enough to allow some big pass plays to develop (because there are just too many options to cover if Big5 can avoid pressure for a few seconds)...

If we can open up some holes and get some good running out of Weaver, Westbrook, and McCoy...

If our D can force a few turnovers...

If special teams has at least an average day...

If we can go hard for all 4 quarters....

It's ours. The win, the #2 seed, the bye, the home game. It's ours.

And even if it's not, it's not disaster, as it's damn hard to beat a team THREE times in one season.

My prediction? An Eagles win, and potentially a heart attack for me while watching.

Need more convincing? Here's what Tommy has to say:

Make things simple if you want. We've won more games on the year. We've got a longer winning streak. We're the number three scoring team in the league. We have an elite offensive and STs weapon in DeSean Jackson. We have a QB who tends to win in December and January. We have a good FG kicker. We have a coach who knows how to win.

We're the better team right now.

Colts/Bills - Well, I *would* pick the Colts, but those punkasses are all resting, so I'm picking the Bills. So there.

Saints/Panthers - Looking at the way these two teams have played in the last two weeks, I'm doing something crazy and picking the Panthers. I know, I know - a month ago, unthinkable. Now? The Vikings and Giants are not exactly slouch teams, and the wins were decisive. Apparently, Julius Peppers has been eating his Wheaties, and the Panthers should have been starting Matt Moore all season.

Jaguars/Browns - Speaking of crazy picks and playing better and all that stuff, I'm going with the Browns. Yeah, the Jags are still technically in the playoff picture, but they'd need an even bigger miracle than we got at the end of last season to make it in. And the Browns have won three in a row. OK, two of those wins were over the Chiefs and Raiders, but they also beat the Steelers. I think they can close with a win and just maybe save Eric Mangini's job in the process, if Holmgren Claus is feeling generous.

Patriots/Texans - The Team of Destiny is also still technically in the playoff running and could spoil the Pats chances at the #3 seed with a win. Of course, the Pats may actually prefer the #4 seed so they can avoid the Chargers for as long as possible. To me, that adds up to a Texans win.

Giants/Vikings - The wheels are coming off BOTH these teams buses. Still, the Vikings know that their only hope of jumping back into the #2 seed and getting the bye week is to win - and hope. And they're playing at home, which means no cold breezes for the old man. I think that adds up to a Vikings win.

49ers/Rams - If they're smart, the Rams will drop this game on purpose to secure the #1 pick in the 2010 draft. 49ers.

Falcons/Bucs - Falcons. Or Bucs. Who cares? Oh all right - Falcons it is.

Steelers/Dolphins - This is going to be an ugly game. Both teams desperately need the win and a LOT of help to sneak into the playoffs. Fact 1: the Steelers are the defending champs. Fact 2: Polamalu's supposed to be back. Result? Steelers win. But it will be a close game.

Bears/Lions - Jay Cutler actually played pretty decently on Monday night. It doesn't matter at this point (well, at least not for the Bears), but he was not bad. Can he keep it up for two games? Nah. But it won't matter - he could hand the ball to the Lions every other play and the Bears should still be able to pull off the win.

Broncos/Chiefs - Even though the Broncos are currently sitting in the #5 spot, they don't own it. Again, they need a win and help to hang on to a wildcard spot. All they can *do* to help themselves is win, which they should do handily.

Ravens/Raiders - The Ravens should also win. And I need a super computer to help me figure out what the AFC playoff picture would look like if my week 17 predictions all turn out to be true.

Titans/Seahawks - Titans. Not that it matters.

Redskins/Chargers - Chargers. Also not that it matters.

Packers/Cardinals - This is another BIG game that could go either way with both teams with a lot on the line. I think the Packers win (I'd be sure of it if they were playing in Green Bay), and I think the two teams will face each other again next week with, I suspect, a different outcome.

Bengals/Jets - The Bengals will know before the game starts whether or not they have a chance to jump into the #3 seed. But Marvin Lewis and Ocho Cinco have promised that, no matter what, they're not resting. I think it would be totally unfair if the Jets leaped into the playoffs because their last two opponents didn't bother to bring their A games. But that may be exactly what happens. Why is this game the 8 pm game and not our game again? Yes, I know the Jets control their destiny for the final wildcard spot, but that's only because the Colts punked out last week. I hope the Bengals whup them but good.

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Sunday Schedule: January 3, 2010

This is it! Last week of the regular season. Not the last week of *our* season, of course - we're going to the playoffs, as we have 8 of the last 10 years. By the way, we're tied with the Colts for most playoff appearances in the last 10 years. Even the mighty Pats are only on #7 this year. And the Colts have lost their first playoff game 4 times. We've NEVER lost our first playoff game in that stretch. Yeah, yeah, I know they have a Super Bowl. We will, too, some day (maybe this year). I'm just saying that December and January are great times to be an Eagles fan.

BTW, all the games are on Sunday this week. Big day for lots of teams, with the NFC seeding still completely up in the air, and the AFC wildcard still completely up in the air.

1 pm: Giants/Vikings
4 pm: Eagles/Cowboys
8 pm: Jets/Bengals

You know what's awesome? All 3 games have major playoff implications.

Menu: Chef Spouse checked what we made last year when we whupped the Cowboys on the final day of the regular season. Turns out we had leftover bouef bourgignon, and we can't do that this year, because we eated it already. So he's thinking ham and scalloped potatoes. Bring something to go with. And look for ribs (his second choice, but we don't have time to make them this weekend) to make an appearance during the playoffs.

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