2012 Divisional Weekend Picks

The AFC games are obvious this weekend. Seeing as I'm about 99.87% sure the Broncos are headed to the Super Bowl (kick-ass defense and a reinvigorated Peyton Manning, anyone?), I think *this* will be the last game of Ray Lewis's career. And while the Texans are solid on D, too, I don't think they're solid enough to overcome the Tom Brady-bot at home, particularly since Matt Schaub is shaky in playoff games, and they're playing in Foxborough. I'm going Broncos and Pats, as, I suspect, is the entire rest of the NFL game picking world.

The NFC, on the other hand, seems not nearly as clear. The Seahawks and the Redskins, on the offensive side of the ball at least, are similar teams, and I thought for sure that homefield and the Skins strong run defense would carry the day last weekend. I did not foresee that the field at FedEx would look like a hog waller, that RGIII would re-injure his knee in the first quarter, and that Shanny would then inexplicably not take him out of the game, certainly costing the Skins the game and perhaps costing RGIII the 2013 season. This has been an interesting week to be a follower of the NFL here in DC.

Anyway, returning to this weekend's games, as Chef Spouse is fond of pointing out, the Falcons are the #1 ranked team in the NFC and no one gives them any respect. Including me, apparently, because I'm picking the Seahawks.

Turning to the 49ers/Packers matchup, the big story has been the first meeting of the 2005 draft class quarterbacks. Except, of course, that Colin Kaepernick is starting for the 49ers. And, Aa-Rodg magic aside, I think he and their stout defense are going to carry the 49ers to the NFC Championship game.

Of course, if I'm right about all this, we're looking at a VERY interesting conference championship weekend, with Peyton versus Tom, part I don't even know how many, and, in the NFC, division rivals meeting for a shot at the Super Bowl.

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2012 Wildcard Weekend Picks

Bengals at Texans: The Texans finished the 2012 season slumping, going 2-3 in their last 5 games, and losing the #1 seed. The Bengals finished hot, going 4-1 and playing themselves into the playoffs. The Texans won't be able to get much done through the air against the Bengals, but Arian Foster should be able to get it done on the ground. That and homefield should get the Texans past the Bengals, but I suspect their ride will end immediately after.

Viking at Packers: Adrian Peterson is a beast, no doubt, but I do not see the Vikings beating the Pack two weeks in a row, particularly not at Lambeau in January, and even if Greg Jennings would rather play inside. Packers.

Colts at Ravens: This week, Ray Lewis has announced that he's retiring after this season. He also announced that he'll be playing in the playoffs. And Joe Flacco hasn't exactly been lighting it up recently. And Andrew Luck has. But the Ravens still have Ray Rice, and the Colts have a rookie QB and a defense that is putrid against the run. And there is NO WAY the team lets a wildcard loss be Ray-Ray's last game. NO WAY. Ravens.

Seahawks at Redskins: This is a VERY INTERESTING matchup. Two dynamic rookie QBs. Two powerful running games. Two teams no one expected to see in the post-season this year. The Redskins are on fire going into the playoffs, winning their last seven games. The Seahawks are on fire going into the playoffs, winning their last five, including hanging 42 points on the #3 defense in the league. The NFL honchos chose wisely in putting this game on Sunday at 4:30. It should be excellent. The Seahawks should definitely go to the air against the Skins, who are almost dead last against the pass. But both of these teams have made their bones with their ground games. And if it's true that offense wins games and defense wins championships, I'm going to have to go with the Skins, who are better against the run than the Hawks.

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2011 Divisional Weekend Picks

Broncos at Patriots: aka Jesus versus Satan, the Sequel. Even though he won last time, I'm still putting my money on Dr. Evil and his Yankee henchmen. Hey, I tend to root for the bad guy all the time - just ask Chef Spouse. Pats.

Texans at Ravens: I know just last week I realized I should've stuck with my former Team of Destiny, but unless they manage to bring all 70,000 Texans fans with them to M&T Bank Stadium - and I think the Ravens fans might have something to say about that - I think they're in trouble this week. Ravens.

Giants at Packers: The Giants are the popular upset pick in my office football pool (no cash at stake, just smack talking/bragging rights). I'm thinking "rested" not "rusty" though, and I'm going with the Packers.

Saints at 49ers: This is my upset pick. I'm going with the 49ers. The Saints are mortal away from the Superdome and their fan base. If offense wins games while defense wins championships...and if all else fails, the 49ers have their secret weapon, Chef Spouse's boy David Akers. Who can onside kick like nobody's business and, apparently, throw TDs in a pinch.

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2011 Wildcard Weekend Recap

Texans over Bengals: The Bengals started strong, looked like they had it in the first half. But they had the proverbial uncapitalized opportunities, and by the second half, homefield advantage was kicking in in a big way. The Texans' fans were going nuts non-stop for 3 1/2 hours, and the Bengals eventually succumbed. Well, to the fans and to Arian Foster's 150+ yards on the ground. Realistically, neither of these teams was going to go far, but congratulations on your first playoff win, former Team of Destiny. Clearly, I should've kept the faith.

Saints over Lions: As expected. Did you notice the game was poorly officiated? Because it was SO poorly officiated, the NFL has officially admitted they blew the fumble/fumble recovery call towards the end of the first half. You can argue that, given the eventual score, that 7 points didn't really matter. Or did it? Momentum is a tricky thing. Not that I'm sad that the Saints won or anything, but you do really hope that the zebras will bring their BEST effort to the playoffs, not their worst.

Giants over Falcons: Also as expected. Eli was good Eli - which he's been more than not this season - and where in the hell did that run game come from? That may be the true miracle this season. I expected the Giants to win, but holding the Falcons to only a safety? Wow. The Falcons helped by making poor choices on going for it on 4th and short. Those were the sorriest excuses for QB sneaks I've ever seen, but they were representative of the fact that the Falcons O-line was getting NO push at all on the Giants D-line all day. Dear Mike Smith: wishing doesn't make it so.

Broncos over Steelers: I'm still stunned about this one. When did Tim Tebow turn into John Elway? I'm sure I saw Elway in a suit in one of the luxury suites. Then again, it was TV...Tebow's mechanics are still cringe-worthy (even for someone like me who's never played the game herself), but when did he start becoming a down the field passing threat? Ben's inability to move and the other injuries the Steelers were dealing with clearly hurt them big time, too. Is it real? Guess we'll know next week in Foxborough. So was I the only person who noticed that Ron Winter didn't seem to quite understand the new playoff game overtime rules? Because that long explanation he gave before the coin toss made NO sense. I guess it was a good thing it wasn't necessary to deploy them, because I'm not confident the officiating crew would've known what was what.

So all the home teams won this weekend. Will that hold next week? We'll see...

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2011 Wildcard Weekend Picks

Bengals at Texans: neither team comes in exactly lighting it up, but the Texans remind me of season 4 Buffy the Vampire Slayer. For those few fools who weren't fans (what's wrong with you, btw?), the basic plot was that an evil government entity was trying to put together a race of half human/half demon warriors, a la Dr. Frankenstein. One of the creatures begins running amuck, as these sorts of creatures often do, and plots to lure Buffy into the demon containment facility that's guarded by soldiers. His plan is to incite a riot while she's there and for her to kill enough demons (her destined calling) to even the human/demon body count (thus providing plenty of construction materials) until she's too weak to continue. That's pretty much where the Texans are at this point. Also, in their last matchup in week 14, the Texans won (their last win, for what it's worth). And it's hard to beat a team twice in a row. Bengals. Which they should savor, since it will be their last playoff win this year.

Steelers at Broncos: Of course, by that logic, I should pick the Broncos, because the Steelers are one beaten down mess at this point. But I just can't see the Broncos pulling this off. The Steelers are too smart - and too good on D. And Tim Tebow's 15 minutes seems almost up. Steelers.

Falcons at Giants: I'm really tempted to take the Falcons here, and they do have a marginally better record. But even with the other problems the Giants have these days, and they are many, Eli Manning has a hot hand going into the playoffs, and Victor Cruz can turn a 5 yard dump off pass into a 90+ yard TD at any moment, and to me, that says that the Falcons, even though they have a well-ranked D, are in trouble. Also, they are not so good on the road. Giants.

Lions at Saints: Oh Lions. Lions Lions Lions. I hate to say "I told you so" but I told you to do WHATEVER IT TAKES to hang onto the 5th seed. Did you listen to me? Noooooo. Will you regret it? Yeeeeeessss. About the time you realize that not only can't you hear each other in the huddle, but the Superdome is rocking so hard you can't even use hand signals. The Saints don't lose at home, baby. Saints.

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2010 Week 13 Recap

Eagles v. Texans, Thursday, December 2, 2010

In attendance: not even me! I had dance practice Thursday and had to record the game and watch it Friday night. Of course, I knew how it turned out before I watched it. My media blackout attempts were summarily killed by the Washington Post, which had the score on the front page of the Sports section Friday. Given how the game went down, this was probably a good thing, and no doubt saved me several heart attacks and much screaming and yelling.

Stud of the week: Michael Vick. Not only was his defense not able to hold a 14 point lead, going down by four at one point, and needing him to rally the team to a win, but he did it after getting repeatedly knocked on his ass. Much like a weeble, he kept popping back up. Thank God. Shady had a good game, too, going for 130 combined yards. Anyone else notice how much he's starting to run like BWest? Must be all those screens! Gotta give a shout out to Chef Spouse's boy David Akers, too, who set the franchise record for starts at 184 on Thursday, passing Wolverine, whose starts, let's be honest, were qualitatively different (no disrespect meant to Akers).

So, comments on the game. It's four days after, so the recaps have already hit everywhere but, um, here.

The big stories were:

Michael Vick is one tough mo-fo. Yes, he is. See above. Also, loved the whole "not in OUR house" 4th quarter come-back.

Andy Reid calls out the officials. Glad to see I'm not the only one who notices that some QBs (whose last name may be "Manning") draw 15 yard penalties if your arm glances off their helmet, while some QBs get blatantly face masked (see above, Vick, Michael) or their NOSES get BROKEN (Big Ben and the whole "my nose is now perpendicular to my face" thing on SNF) and...nothing.

Brent Celek and Jason Avant BOTH drop the same TD pass.  C'mon man!

The Vick throw in the 4th quarter when we needed to keep the clock moving. I don't think that was actually a planned throw. Watching it again, the flags were already in by the time Vick threw it away. Andy is not the master of clock management, but I don't think that was him.

And the big one: the defense. OK, the third quarter was not great. But the thing is, the Texans can totes score points. I'm not thrilled that the gave up 2 TDs, but I'm not that surprised, either. It's clear that the Eagles D misses Asante Samuel big time, not least of which because no coach in his right mind wants to throw near him, which allows the rest of the defense to cheat the coverage on his side, leaving them only having to deal with about 2/3 of the field. When they have to cover the WHOLE field, things aren't so good. But again, giving up 24 points to the Texans is not beyond the pale.

4 games left, resurgent Cowboys twice, resurgent Vikings once, and the Giants in their house. The Eagles can't ever do anything the easy way, can they? Go get 'em, boys. (Doing something to reduce penalties might help.)

Around the rest of the NFL...

Saints over Bengals. How do the Bengals go up on the Saints? How, after they've pulled off that feat, do they fall for the oldest trick in the book and jump offsides on the hard count on 4th and 2 at the end of the game? Oh Bungles, it sucks to be you.

Bears over Lions. Have you noticed that the Lions have been in every game this season? If they can just keep Matthew Stafford healthy, they're this close to being good.

Packers over 49ers. Well, yes. And how many tackles did Donald Driver break to put the Pack ahead for good? 4? 5? 137?

Chiefs over Broncos. With the Chargers surprising loss to the Raiders (more on that below), the Chiefs have probably pretty much wrapped up the West. Raise your hand if you saw THAT coming. Also, Josh McDaniels is out. Three head coaches out of 32 are already out. As Chef Spouse observed while cooking dinner tonight, the beheadings don't usually start until January, so they're really ahead of schedule this year.

Browns over Dolphins. Apparently, this was the most boring game since the Steelers beat the Dolphins 3-0 on MNF a few years back (the infamous "the ball actually got stuck in the field" game).

Vikings over Bills.  See, I told you the Vikes should give Tavaris Jackson a shot.

Giants over Redskins. Apparently, the Redskins dragon-style "we suck" suckitude-fu was stronger than DMac's tiger-style "Dear Giants: I own your asses" awesomeness-fu. Also, Fat Albert was apparently having a bad hair day and didn't feel like playing. Also, it would've been REALLY helpful if the Redskins could've pulled off the upset win. Also, perhaps they should fire EVERYONE (including the owner), burn FedEx field to the ground, salt the earth, and start over. Just a suggestion.

Jaguars over Titans. Did I mention that things are going all the way wrong in Tennessee? Because they are.

Raider over Chargers. Have you ever noticed that the second the commentators start making a big deal about something, whether it be "Mike Vick hasn't thrown a single pick all season" or "The Chargers haven't lost in December in FIVE YEARS," it immediately happens?

Rams over Cardinals. Whatever. Apparently, Ditka is also on record as agreeing with me that, if no team in a division finishes above .500, they should automatically lose their playoff spot. Preach, Ditka!

Cowboys over Colts. Well, that was unexpected. Two thoughts: number one, with almost no players left, Peyton Manning is clearly trying to do too much. Number two, maybe changing head coaches mid-season isn't such a bad move after all. At least then no one knows what to expect until they get some film on you. For the Eagles' sake, I hope 4 weeks worth of film on Jason Garrett will be enough.

Seahawks over Panthers. Yawn.

Falcons over Bucs. OK, everyone's now on the whole "Matty Ice is DREAMY" train. I have to point out that the 7-5 Bucs haven't beat any teams with winning records AND the NFC South features the truly awful Panthers. There's 10-2, and then there's 10-2.

Steelers over Ravens. Talk about a slug fest! I mean literally - Ben Roethlisberger's nose got broken. The Ravens dominated the game...up until the very end, when Troy Polamalu forced a Joe Flacco fumble that was recovered by LaMarr Woodley with about 3 minutes left, leading to the Steelers only TD of the evening.

On to Pats/Jets!

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2010 Week 13 Picks

The Texans are, even as I write this, at The Linc, no doubt thinking, "Damn, it's COLD here!"

This has been a relatively high drama week for our beloved Eagles - Andy Reid went all Bill Parcells on the team after the loss to the Bears. Asante's still gimpy. Big Red called out DJax. Rumors have surfaced that his mind is on his contract and not on field. Andre Johnson, the Texans' top receiver, threw down with the Titans' Courtland Finnegan but oddly wasn't suspended, even though helmets came off, punches were thrown, and they were both ejected from the game.

Drama, drama, drama.

But to me, this whole game comes down to one fact: the Texans are 31st in the league against the pass and have given up the most 40+ yard plays of any team. The Eagles offense is 8th in passing yards, and in the top 5 teams in plays of 40+ yards. Don't get me wrong - the Texans have a hot offense, too, #7 overall, and there's a very good chance this turns into a shoot out. But I just don't see them keeping up with us over 60 minutes.

Eagles. And they better win, because I think NFC teams who aren't in the West are going to have to go at least 11-5 to get into the playoffs this year.

In the rest of the matchups:

Broncos at Chiefs - Cheaters never win. Unless they're Bill Belichick. Chiefs.

Bears at Lions - One of these seasons, it's going to be the Lions' year. Looks like this one isn't it, though. Bears.

Redskins at Giants - The Skins are going to get killed. Remember a few years ago, when Osi Umenyiora sacked DMac, like, 300 times? That's going to be mild compared to what's going to go down Sunday. I hope the Redskins still *have* a QB by 4 pm. Giants

Jags at Titans - Things are falling apart fast in Tennessee. Jags.

49ers at Packers - Even with BWest active in the backfield, I gotta go with the Packers.

Bills at Vikings - Vikings. Dear God, if they win a few more games, does that mean we STILL won't be rid of Brett Favre?

Saints at Bengals - Bengals. SIKE! Saints. Of course.

Browns at Dolphins - Dolphins. Although, to be fair, the Browns are looking much improved.

Falcons at Buccaneers - Falcons. Damn, the NFC South is tough this year. Well, other than the Panthers.

Raiders at Chargers - Chargers. It's December.

Cowboys at Colts - Colts. Even if they are starting guys they picked up off the street.

Panthers at Seahawks - Panthers. Think anyone will watch this game?

Rams at Cardinals - Rams. Yuck.

Steelers at Ravens - Ravens. I think this one's going to be a low-scoring nail-biter, but I'm going with the home team. Also, what a great game for SNF!

Jets at Patriots - And speaking of great prime time games, TWO divisional leads on the line two nights in a row. Boo-yah! Also, Jets. I think the Pats' day has passed.

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Sunday Schedule: Sunday, December 5, 2010

The Eagles play on Thursday night this week, which means that I'll be nice and relaxed on Sunday.

1 pm: Redskins at Giants.

4 pm: Cowboys at Colts

SNF: Steelers at Ravens! AWESOME!

MFN: Jets at Patriots! Also AWESOME! Good job with the scheduling this week, NFL!

Menu: Not sure. Chef Spouse won't be home until about mid-way through the Sunday night game, so I'll be cooking again. Maybe four cheese pasta? Thoughts?

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