2011 Week 16 Picks

This week, the Eagles travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys at home on Christmas Eve. In their last meeting this season, you may recall that the Eagles whupped up on the Cowboys to the tune of 34-7 at the Linc (one of the few home games the Eagles have won this season).

It's really hard to beat a divisional foe twice in the same season.

The Eagles may be heating up, but Dallas reeled off 4 wins after that whupping in week 8 before dropping their last two, to the Giants and the Cardinals, who inexplicably seem to have had the NFC East's number this year.

This really could go either way. Both teams can score points. Both teams can force turnovers. Both teams can commit turnovers. Both teams can show up big, or not at all, often from one quarter to the next. I'm hoping the Eagles show up, and the Cowboys pull their usual late-season meltdown. Bonus points if Tony Romo does something stupid enough that he starts to cry. That would be an EXCELLENT gift.

I think LeSean McCoy (who, you might have heard, got the most fan votes for the Pro Bowl of any back in the league, coming in 6th in overall voting behind only Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Welker and Calvin Johnson) is the key to this game. He crushed the Cowboys in week 8. Not only did he rack up a ton of yards, he more importantly crushed the confidence of the #1 rushing defense in the league (at the time). Well, Shady and turnovers, which have been the Eagles Achilles heel this year.

I'm throwing caution and good sense to the wind and picking what needs to happen for the Eagles to make the playoffs.

Eagles.

Don't let me down, guys.

As an aside, if it all goes to hell this weekend, know that it's my fault.

(Chef Spouse thinks THIS will be the year the Eagles win the Super Bowl. He's either delusional, cracking under the holiday stress, or he's been hitting the sauce on the sly.)

In the rest of the matchups:

Texans at Colts: Can the Texans win without Wade Phillips? I think so, but only because they're playing the Colts. Texans.

Browns at Ravens: The Ravens will bounce back from last week's loss to the Chargers. Trust.

Broncos at Bills: Broncos. See last week's observation that, in fact, the Bills just might lose all the rest of their games.

Buccaneers at Panthers: Panthers. The Bucs are in a tailspin, and the Panthers got swagger.

Cardinals at Bengals: Interesting matchup. Both teams are in the hunt. With the Bears and possibly the Giants faltering, the door's open for the Cardinals to take the #6 seed. Meanwhile, the Bengals are neck and neck with a Jets team that's on the ropes. Chef Spouse says Bengals, and playing at home, I think he may be right.

Raiders at Chiefs: Before last Sunday, I would've picked the Raiders definitely. Now I'm not so sure. Go Romeo Crennel! Hell, I'm calling the Chiefs in an upset.

Dolphins at Patriots: Sigh. Realistically, the Pats have this. But wouldn't it be awesome if the Fins were able to sneak a win? Not gonna happen.

Giants at Jets: Both teams are reeling, but my Eagles need the Jets to show up. Hey, they took last week off, so they should be nice and rested. Jets.

Rams at Steelers: Steelers. Even without Big Ben. If they can keep him on the bench. Maybe he'll get confused about the whole Christmas weekend Saturday/Sunday thing?

Jaguars at Titans: If the Titans hadn't lost to the Colts...of course, the Jags did win their week 1 meeting...and it's tough to beat a divisional rival twice in a season...and Matt Hasselbeck seems to be OK...I think I just talked myself into calling the Titans.

Vikings at Redskins: The Redskins have been playing up - or down - to their competition all season. But even they can't stoop this low. Redskins.

Chargers at Lions: The Chargers have a long way to go to secure a playoff spot, and all the Lions need is a win and they're secured a spot. And they're at home. Lions.

49ers at Seahawks: Regardless of how this game turns out, I'm rooting for David Akers to make three field goals. But I think the 49ers will win.

Bears at Packers: Packers, Josh McCown or no Josh McCown. Sole game on Christmas, too.

Falcons at Saints: The Falcons really need this game, but the Saints are nearly unbeatable at home. I don't expect that to change Monday. Saints.

Read More

Super Bowl XLV Preview

Confession: it's just not as fun to preview the Super Bowl when your team's not in it. But you knew that.

The Packers go into the Super Bowl smokin' hot. Aaron Rodgers has had inhumanly good QB ratings pretty much since he came back from the concussion. Clay Matthews was right behind another guy who'll be playing Sunday for defensive player of the year. James Starks came out of nowhere to buck up the Packers decimated RB core. And they have some pretty decent receivers - you might've heard of them? Donald Drive and Greg Jennings? The Packers have a better claim than that team from Dallas on the title "America's Team" - hey, it's called the LOMBARDI trophy.

And I'm conflicted about the Steelers. They have, for a long time, been my AFC team, but I have a really hard time rooting for them as long as Ben Roethliseberger's still under center. Bust magazine explains it far better than I could. But to all the people who continue to ding Mike Vick, just remember: he hurt dogs. And served his time. Big Ben is a sexual predator who hurts women. I love dogs, I really do, but they aren't people.

So my heart is with the Packers. Who, you might remember, were the NFC's sixth seed. The only sixth seed team ever to win a Super Bowl? The Steelers.

Which I'm pretty sure is what's going to happen again on Sunday, extending their lead as the Super Bowl winningest team in the NFL.

Steelers. And it should be a good game.

Read More

2010 Conference Championship Picks

Packers at Bears: These are well matched teams. The Bears look terrific. Mike Martz has got the Jay Cutler attitude problem AND interception problem under control. Brian Urlacher seems rejuvenated, and Julius Peppers is playing great. He played great in Carolina, too, of course, it's just that the rest of his was a mess. Charles Tillman creates turnovers the way American Idol creates crap one-hit-wonder pop stars. Matt Forte provides a significant ground attack, which helps keep Cutler from trying to do too much. And two words that strike fear in the heart of every special teams coach in the NFL: Devin Hester.

On the other hand, the Packers are heading for their 3rd road game in a row. They're the #6 seed, and they just pulled off the big upset win over the Falcons a week ago. Their issues with injury this season have been well documented, well, everywhere. And they're playing a divisional rival, which is always just that much harder.

But I'm still picking the Packers. And not just because they took out an Andy Reid team in the first round of the playoffs for only the second time in his 12 seasons as head coach. Aaron Rodgers is on FIRE and not only can't you stop Clay Matthews, you really can't even hope to contain him. Donald Driver and Greg Jennings are going to have to play a lot better than they did on January 2, though.

Jets at Steelers: The Jets are looking surprisingly good at this stage, too. Mark Sanchez seems to be over his sophomore slump from earlier in the season. The secondary combo of Revis and Cromartie is as good as it's supposed to be. Santonio Holmes has his playoff face on, making "Did I just see that?" catches every time you turn around. LaDanian Tomlinson is playing like he's 21, not 31. Jason Taylor, too.

Wait - is Troy Polamalu playing? Yes? Steelers.

Read More

2010 Divisional Weekend Recap

I did a lot better on my picks this week. Just sayin'.

Steelers over Ravens: So, you know, the Ravens were up 21-7 at halftime. And they were getting to Big Ben so much it was like they had a few extra guys out there. But they had no counter for one unassailable fact: Troy Polamalu was playing. OK, he didn't have a big game or anything, but he's like Kryptonite for other teams. Mistake prone game on both sides, with a total of what, 5 or 6 turnovers? But in the end, the Steelers at home were too much for the Ravens. Again. Also, a little tip to players on both sides? Even if the whistle has blown (which it hadn't on Saturday), cover up the ball. Apparently, everyone but Cory Redding missed that week in football school.

Packers over Falcons: I feel a little less bad about losing to the Packers last week now that, if I had to guess, they're going to the Super Bowl with a reasonable chance to win it. Why? Aaron Rodgers is on fire. ON FIRE. 48-21 makes the game look closer than it actually was. The Pack never punted. Not once. Roll that around in your head for a minute or two. And the Falcons started the game well. Unfortunately, they exhausted all their scoring magic in the first 10 minutes. I barely watched the second half, in common with the Falcons "fans," who all headed for the exits by the third quarter. I know your team was getting whupped, but it's the playoffs, man. Sit down and watch it! Even if the Packers do put in their backup QB. Oh, the humanity!

Bears over Seahawks: Did you know that was Jay Cutler's first playoff game since high school? I'll bet you did, since they mentioned it about every 10 seconds. Nothing like starting off with a softball pitch right over home plate, to mix my sports metaphors for a minute. 35-24 also makes it look a lot closer than it was. I'm pretty sure the Bears' starters all left the field to start the celebration in the locker room before the start of the 4th quarter. That's the only explanation I can come up with for 21 points by the Seahawks in the 4th.

Jets over Patriots: This was the surprise of the weekend. I know a lot of people think Rex Ryan is an obnoxious loud mouth. Personally, I think he's hilarious, and the Ryan/Sanchez combo is far preferable to Big Cheater Bill Belichick and his pretty-boy dunderhead QB Tom Brady, at least in my world. Also, Bill? Buy a shirt with sleeves. You look homeless. Tom Landry is turning over in his grave, buddy.

Read More