2012 Divisional Weekend Picks

The AFC games are obvious this weekend. Seeing as I'm about 99.87% sure the Broncos are headed to the Super Bowl (kick-ass defense and a reinvigorated Peyton Manning, anyone?), I think *this* will be the last game of Ray Lewis's career. And while the Texans are solid on D, too, I don't think they're solid enough to overcome the Tom Brady-bot at home, particularly since Matt Schaub is shaky in playoff games, and they're playing in Foxborough. I'm going Broncos and Pats, as, I suspect, is the entire rest of the NFL game picking world.

The NFC, on the other hand, seems not nearly as clear. The Seahawks and the Redskins, on the offensive side of the ball at least, are similar teams, and I thought for sure that homefield and the Skins strong run defense would carry the day last weekend. I did not foresee that the field at FedEx would look like a hog waller, that RGIII would re-injure his knee in the first quarter, and that Shanny would then inexplicably not take him out of the game, certainly costing the Skins the game and perhaps costing RGIII the 2013 season. This has been an interesting week to be a follower of the NFL here in DC.

Anyway, returning to this weekend's games, as Chef Spouse is fond of pointing out, the Falcons are the #1 ranked team in the NFC and no one gives them any respect. Including me, apparently, because I'm picking the Seahawks.

Turning to the 49ers/Packers matchup, the big story has been the first meeting of the 2005 draft class quarterbacks. Except, of course, that Colin Kaepernick is starting for the 49ers. And, Aa-Rodg magic aside, I think he and their stout defense are going to carry the 49ers to the NFC Championship game.

Of course, if I'm right about all this, we're looking at a VERY interesting conference championship weekend, with Peyton versus Tom, part I don't even know how many, and, in the NFC, division rivals meeting for a shot at the Super Bowl.

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2012 Wildcard Weekend Picks

Bengals at Texans: The Texans finished the 2012 season slumping, going 2-3 in their last 5 games, and losing the #1 seed. The Bengals finished hot, going 4-1 and playing themselves into the playoffs. The Texans won't be able to get much done through the air against the Bengals, but Arian Foster should be able to get it done on the ground. That and homefield should get the Texans past the Bengals, but I suspect their ride will end immediately after.

Viking at Packers: Adrian Peterson is a beast, no doubt, but I do not see the Vikings beating the Pack two weeks in a row, particularly not at Lambeau in January, and even if Greg Jennings would rather play inside. Packers.

Colts at Ravens: This week, Ray Lewis has announced that he's retiring after this season. He also announced that he'll be playing in the playoffs. And Joe Flacco hasn't exactly been lighting it up recently. And Andrew Luck has. But the Ravens still have Ray Rice, and the Colts have a rookie QB and a defense that is putrid against the run. And there is NO WAY the team lets a wildcard loss be Ray-Ray's last game. NO WAY. Ravens.

Seahawks at Redskins: This is a VERY INTERESTING matchup. Two dynamic rookie QBs. Two powerful running games. Two teams no one expected to see in the post-season this year. The Redskins are on fire going into the playoffs, winning their last seven games. The Seahawks are on fire going into the playoffs, winning their last five, including hanging 42 points on the #3 defense in the league. The NFL honchos chose wisely in putting this game on Sunday at 4:30. It should be excellent. The Seahawks should definitely go to the air against the Skins, who are almost dead last against the pass. But both of these teams have made their bones with their ground games. And if it's true that offense wins games and defense wins championships, I'm going to have to go with the Skins, who are better against the run than the Hawks.

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2011 Week 13 Recap

Eagles at Seahawks, Thursday, December 1, 2011

I hate  to say "I told you so," particularly on this one, but I told you so.

Prediction: debacle

Reality: debacle

Stud of the Week: Continuing as the only bright spot in the whole damn season, LeSean McCoy. Dear Santa: could I please have a #25 ladies jersey in black this year? 

Much like the 42-0 MNF mess in 2005, I confess that I didn't watch to the end. After Vince Young threw his FOURTH pick with about four minutes left in the game, I turned to Chef Spouse and said, "That's it. I'm out."

Where do I even start in recapping the game?

DeSean Jackson. Yes, the NFL Network clearly cut the shot where Vince Young was talking to Riley Cooper (I think) to make it look like he was talking to DJax, but the proof is in the pudding. Regardless of what was really going on Thursday night, his play all season demonstrates the fundamental truth of the fact that he's quit on the team.  And a word of advice: I know you love your buds from Cali, but laughing & talking with them while a team mate is lying injured on the ground is not cool.

Jason Babin. Tons of sacks, no stopping of the run. Great for you, not so great for the team. Hm - story of the whole season, come to think of it.

Asante Samuel: F off. Really.

Colt Anderson: Another bright spot in the season. Well, up until he tears his ACL in a meaningless game. And don't give me crap about how if only the Eagles had beat the Seahawks, they'd still be right in it. The back to back losses to the Bears and the Cardinals killed this season long before the Eagles flew out to Seattle last week.

Jason Avant: I just have to keep giving much love to a smart, serious receiver who continues to play his butt off.

One of my friends sent me a great article "Requiem for the Dream Team" that identified the five major issues with the Eagles this year. You should really read the entire article because the explanations offered are fantastic, but the five points are:

1. Serious line deficiencies, both O and D
2. Soft at linebacker and safety
3. Nnamdi Asomugha, MIA
4. Decline of Vick and Jackson
5. Bad luck

Yep. That about sums it up.

It's amazing I got through writing that without a shot of bourbon. Guess where I'm headed now?

I'll be at a conference next week, so I'll try to recap the rest of the games, but I can't promise anything.

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2011 Week 13 Picks

Anyone other than me remember the last time the Eagles faced the Seahawks in prime time?  Does 42-0 on Monday night football in week 13 of 2005 ring any bells?

I was on a business trip in Florida at the time, so I was watching while texting Chef Spouse and on the phone with Life-Long Eagles Fan Mom. I remember remarking to both of them: "Did you notice how Mike McMahon looks like he's not sure where he is or how he got there, but either way, he's cognizant of the fact that there are great big men standing a few yards away who are trying to kill him, and he's NOT HAPPY?" That was not a good night.

Then the Eagles faced the Seahawks again in 2007, after McNabb had gone down just before that, with an ankle injury, so AJ Feeley was under center, and the Eagles lost again, 28-24.

The Eagles did manage a road victory against the Seahawks in 2008. Remember 2008? The last time the Eagles got within sniffing distance of the Super Bowl? Sigh. Good times.

Why am I bringing all this up?

Vick, Maclin and DRC are definitely out.  Asomugha and Shady are "questionable." Trevor Laws is delusional. The coaches are fighting on the sidelines. And the Eagles are playing the Seahawks in Seattle in prime time.

Prediction? Debacle. Also, Seahawks.

In the rest of the matchups

Jets at Redskins: Jets

Chiefs at Bears: Both teams are out of QBs, so Chef Spouse said to go with Brian Urlacher. The Chiefs' D is actually ranked higher than the Bears, but Chef Spouse seemed certain, so...Bears.

Titans at Bills: The Bills, after showing such early season promise, are entering a death spiral, losing 4 of their last 5. In the meantime, with the Texans also out of QBs, the Jags in turmoil (see below), and the Colts WAY out in front in the "Suck for Luck" race, the Titans have a shot at the division. I think they'll keep their eyes on the prize and that Chris Johnson will have a big day against a run defense that's not exactly stifling. Titans.

Raiders at Dolphins: Tony Sparano managed to pull his team together to win enough games to likely knock them out of the Luck race, but the Raiders are like the horse who smells the stable, running for home and their first real shot at the divisional title in, well, a long time (9 years, to be precise).

Bengals at Steelers: Steelers. The Bengals are looking good and could be a wildcard contender this year, but the Steelers are getting on their annual end of season roll, which is damn hard to stop. Just ask, well, the Bengals.

Falcons at Texans: Speaking of teams that are out of QBs, TJ Yates is a 24 year old rookie who's thrown 15 passes and completed 8 in his ENTIRE career. Yeah, Falcons.

Broncos at Vikings: Broncos. Don't question The Tebow.

Panthers at Buccaneers: Panthers. Love me some Cam.

Colts at Patriots: OH THE HUMANITY. Can we invoke the mercy rule so this game doesn't even have to be played? Think Tom Brady will be watching from the owner's box? It's not like they're going to need him on the field to beat the sad sack Colts. Patriots.

Ravens at Browns: Ravens, even though they've had a tendency - like pretty much the entire rest of the league aside from the Packers come to think of it - to drop games they really should win.

Rams at 49ers: 49ers. Move along. Nothing else to see/say here.

Cowboys at Cardinals: It looks like the Cardinals actually did find their QB of the future. No, not Kevin Kolb - John Skelton. But I doubt it will be enough to get past the Cowboys. Well, this year anyway. Cowboys.

Packers at Giants: Packers. Annual Giants end of season slump. How many of those does Tom Coughlin get before he gets fired?

Lions at Saints: Saints. Who are pretty much unbeatable at home.

Chargers at Jaguars: Jack Del Rio got fired this week. Things have to be pretty damn bad for a head coach to get fired mid-season. Hell, Jim Caldwell still has a job. That's how bad things are in Jacksonville. The Chargers will pull out of their six game losing streak. Not that it will help them, since I'm pretty sure they can't leapfrog the Broncos AND the Raiders, and at the rate things are going, both AFC wildcard teams will come from the North. Chargers.

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2010 Divisional Weekend Picks

The Eagles may be out of it at this point, but I'm still soldiering on with the blog. And the picks. 

Ravens at Steelers: These two teams are really evenly matched. Both 12-4, both similar style - grind it out on the ground, tough defense, Great Big White Guy quarterbacks, from tough, blue collar cities that are passionate about their teams. This could finish 7-6. Every inch will be contested, every point hard fought...oh wait. Is Troy Polamalu playing? Yes? Steelers.

Packers at Falcons: I'm only picking one road team this week, and despite Mattie Ice's success in the Georgia Dome, it's the smokin' hot Packers. So now you know how the rest of the picks are going to turn out.

Seahawks at Bears: The Seahakws won't be able to bring 65,000 home fans with them to Chicago. And I don't think Jay Culter's going to throw 5 picks. And even if he does, it might not be enough anyway. Bears.

Jets at Patriots: Rex? I don't like Tom Brady and Bill Belichick either, so I'm feeling you, but that payday loan's come due. Pats.

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Sunday Schedule: Sunday, January 16, 2011

Well, the Eagles are out of is, but that means we can all relax and enjoy the games without having a coronary every 10 minutes. Hey, I'm trying to look on the bright side here, people!

Anyway, as usual for playoffs, there are games both days, but we'll plan to do the big party and cooking on Sunday.

Saturday games:

4:30 - Ravens at Steelers
8:00 - Packers at Falcons

Sunday games:

1:00 - Seahawks at Bears
4:30 - Jets at Patriots

Chef Spouse is going to make gumbo. He was planning to make it in honor of the Saints' 2011 playoff run. Since that came to an early and abrupt end, he's making it in honor of the fact that it's carnival season. Also, Biker Nick and his gf are planning to join us! And if I gt inspired, I might make us beignet for dessert. Anyone have an Abita connection?

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2010 Wildcard Weekend Picks

Saints at Seahawks: Unfortunately, the Saints are down to their last running back. Fortunately, it's Reggie Bush. Unfortunately, he hasn't exactly been having a brilliant season.  There's no time like the present to turn that around, Reg. Saints. Not least of which because then we can all put the shame of having a 7-9 team in the NFC playoffs behind us.

Jets at Colts: Rex Ryan's mouth may be writing checks his team can't cash, but I'm pretty sure he'll be able to swing a payday loan at least for this week with "17 Colts on IR" as collateral. Jets.

Ravens at Chiefs: Lots of sports commentator talk about how well the Chiefs match up with the Ravens and home field advantage and Todd Haley this and Matt Cassel that and what a great season Jamaal Charles has had and the Chiefs' great offensive line and rookie safety Eric Berry (who, you might remember, I wanted the Eagles to draft). Whatever. Ravens.

Packers at Eagles: I don't see the Birds going deep into the playoffs this year - not that I wouldn't love to be proved wrong - but (stop me if you've heard this one before), the Eagles are overly dependent on quarterbacking pizazz, and that's not exactly an on demand kind of thing. It's also a highly vulnerable asset. And, with a collective age (other than Akers and Vick) of about 12, they're prone to rookie mistakes. I do see them clearing the Packers at home, not least of which because the starters have had two weeks to prepare, but I think that might be as far as it goes this year. The team has the youth and the talent to remain a strong contender for several years. I'm pretty sure this just ain't our year, but it IS our week. Eagles

Wait - I've picked 3 road teams. Clearly I'm wrong about at least one of those picks. Then again, on the NFL Network earlier this week, Kurt Warner picked all 4 road teams. Which doesn't mean we're not both wrong, but at least I'm in good company.

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