2013 Week 2 Picks

This week, the Eagles host the Chargers in their home opener.

I had this one circled on my calendar (well, figuratively speaking anyway - my calendar's electronic) as a W even before the season started.

Yes the Chargers hung with the Texans, at least for three quarters, but I didn't see anything that, to me, indicates that they'll be able to overcome their historic problems coming east and playing in the early game, particularly not against the Eagles better-than-expected defense and lightening fast offense. Shoot out? Bring it.

Eagles.

In the rest of the matchups:

Jets at Patriots: I swear I had this one picked before the Pats actually won it (have I mentioned lately how much I hate Thursday night football?). But after their first two outings this season, I have to point out that they're lucky they play in the weakest division in the NFL, because they look only slightly better than their dreadful divisional rivals. It was so bad, I clicked on the "Jets/Patriots Highlights" link on the NFL website and got a 404 error. (Nerd joke. I'll be here all week. Try the veal.) And Tom Brady needs to stop acting like a two-year-old who was just asked to share his favorite toy.

Rams at Falcons: The Rams may be better than I was expecting this year. The Falcons are every bit as good as I was expecting, and they're at home. Falcons.

Cowboys at Chiefs: The Cowboys may be the better team (although after last week's slop-fest against the Giants, who can tell?), but Andy Reid has had their number for years. I'm going with my heart on this one and picking the Chiefs.

Dolphins at Colts: Given how much trouble the Colts had handling the Raiders last week, I'm strongly tempted to go with the upset pick here...Aw, what the hell. Dolphins.

Titans at Texans: Texans.

Redskins at Packers: Packers. Both teams are coming off disappointing losses in week one, and the playoff chances of teams that start 0-2 are not good. I think RGIII is going to have a hard time avoiding Clay Matthews, and I think ARodg is going to light up the Skins secondary.

Browns at Ravens: Ravens. They got spanked by the Broncos last week, and they may have lost too much to win the division again (which would be problematic for my pre-season picks), but they haven't lost THAT much.

Panthers at Bills: Panthers. The Panthers are looking better this year (freshman Cam, not sophomore Cam, and a pretty decent D, at least so far), and the Bills are looking like, well, the Bills.

Vikings at Bears: Bears. I'm not sold on their defense without Brian Urlacher (spirits, not skills), and I've never been sold on Jay Cutler, but I'm really not sold on the Adrian Petersons. (What? He's basically their entire team at this point.)

Saints at Buccaneers: Saints. No way the Bucs can score enough points to keep up.

Lions at Cardinals: This is a tough one. The Lions looked pretty mortal last week, and the Cards looked surprisingly good against the Rams. But I just can't go against the Megatron/Reggie Bush combo pack.

Jaguars at Raiders: Worst Game of the Week. Jaguars.

Broncos at Giants: And Round 3 in the Manning Bowl goes to Peyton. Broncos.

49ers at Seahawks: Best Game of the Week. Also, even though the 49ers looked stronger last week than the Seahawks, as I was discussing with one of my friends at lunch today, CenturyLink Field is one of the few places that provide a consistent and meaningful homefield advantage. Also, I picked them to win the division this year. Seahawks.

Steelers at Bengals: After last week's embarrassing loss to the Titans, the big question on the NFL Network this week has been: are the Steelers in trouble? Yes, yes, they are. Bengals.

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Color Me Shocked

Eagles 33, Redskins 27, Monday, September 9, 2013 

Going into the game, there was no reason to think the Eagles could win. Sure RGIII is coming off a major injury, but the Skins are the defending NFC East champions opening the season at home against a division rival that went 4-12 last year.

Meanwhile, the Eagles have a new head coach,  new offensive and defensive coordinators, a new special teams coach, a new offense, a new 3-4 defensive scheme (with players acquired during a 4-3 era), and a bunch of new players, particularly on defense. 

So no way the Eagles win this one, right?

Not exactly.

Stud of the week: there are PLENTY of candidates, believe me (or believe Bleeding Green Nation)

but I think I have to go with Mychal Kendricks, who was *so* all over the field it seemed like there might have been two of him. Or more.

All the talk on SportsCenter and the NFL Network today has been about how fast the Eagles were on offense (well,  that and Ndamukong Suh's $100K fine). How fast were they? They were so fast for the first 3 quarters that Jon Gruden didn't have time to run his mouth, for which we should all be grateful.

In the fourth quarter, the Eagles slowed down. Too much. And Chip Kelly knows it, based on today's interviews. So that's reassuring. Everyone still has something to learn.

In the meantime, Shady McCoy nearly had a career night and looked like he was a player in Madden most of the night, leaving the Redskins defense chasing his shadow and scratching their heads.

DeSean Jackson had a great night too, with over 100 yards and a TD.

Michael Vick looked solid and may have finally found the right offensive scheme. Two things that worried me: him clutching his groin after that 36 yard fourth quarter scramble and the fact that more than once, he was blocking for McCoy or Bryce Brown, which is ballsy and honorable and all that good stuff, and scares the shit out of me.

The defense looked much better than they were in the pre-season, at least until they started giving too much cushion in the fourth quarter. But they've actually learned to tackle! And all that blitzing felt like a return to the JJ years. Also, Patrick Chung really should have picked that final Leonard Hankerson TD. Gotta work on that, buddy.

Excitingly, we also saw outstanding special teams play. Donnie Jones punted well, and in many cases, the ball was coming down close to the goal line and the Eagles had a player behind the Redskins player to prevent the touchback and force either a fair catch or a catch and run. And when a Skins punt returner did run, everyone else was there to stop him cold. We even had a "do it again" 48-yarder from Alex Henery on a night when usually reliable Kai Forbath missed from 40.

Ultimately, the Eagles benefited from the element of surprise - and blazing speed - on a night when RGIII was rusty. Teams, and defensive coordinators, will figure this out eventually. And RGIII got better by the quarter. But for now, a victory feels awfully sweet.

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2013 Week 1 Picks

Trying to choose picks this early in the season is a pain in the ass. All you have to go on is who got traded where this year (useless), rumors (useless), and teams' performance in the preseason (worse than useless). Might as well just flip a coin.

Also, can I talk about how much I hate Thursday Night Football?  I understand that the NFL Network wants to be able to broadcast a weekly game, but that doesn't mean it's not bullshit.

OK, enough grousing. On to the picks.

This week, the Eagles will be coming to DC to open the season on MONDAY Night Football (the only real weeknight for football). Cool Web Dude and I were chatting about the game a few weeks ago, and he opined that if, coming off winning the NFC East for the first time since 1999 and seeing their season end so disastrously, the 'Skins lose this game, it would likely start a downward spiral that would kill their entire season. Fortunately for him and 'Skins fans around the world, there's no way that happens. Redskins.

Ravens at Broncos: Think the Broncos are plenty pissed after having to look at Joe Flacco's mug on [Corporate] Stadium at Mile High? Me, too. Broncos.

Dolphins at Browns: I expect both teams to be dramatically improved this year, but I expect the Fins to be more improved. Dolphins.

Vikings at Lions: Reggie Bush AND Megatron versus Adrian Peterson? Gotta go Lions.

Raiders at Colts: Chef Spouse's company has started a You-Pick-Em league this year with some sweet prizes on the line (Top prize? Two tickets to Super Bowl 48, and, no, I am not kidding), so he's in, or, to be more precise, he'll be picking my picks in his You-Pick-Em league. One of their weekly tie breakers is to choose which team will score the fewest points that week and which team will score the most. At least this week, those will both happen in the same game. Colts.

Chiefs at Jaguars: The new look Chiefs are a bit of a mystery at this point, but the Jags aren't. They suck. Chiefs.

Buccaneers at Jets: Also bringing the suck? The Jets. Buccaneers.

Falcons at Saints: There is NO WAY the Saints drop their season opener at home to their biggest rivals. Saints.

Titans at Steelers: The Titans are on their way up, and the Steelers are on their way down, but Heinz Field is one hell of a homefield advantage. Steelers.

Bengals at Bears: Interesting matchup here. I've picked the Bengals for the playoffs, and although I don't have the Bears, too, lots of others do. The Bengals get by on the strength of their defense, and the Bears defense is their weakness now that Urlacher and Lovie are gone. I'm going with Bengals here, but this could be a low-scoring game.

Seahawks at Panthers: The Panthers are dead meat. Seahawks.

Patriots at Bills: I really *want* to pick the Bills, but I also really want to win those tickets to Super Bowl 48. Patriots.

Packers at 49ers: This should be a great game. I've got the 49ers - homefield again - but this one could go either way.

Cardinals at Rams: I think Carson Palmer is going to REALLY REALLY enjoy playing with Fitz. REALLY. And the Rams are YOUNG. Cardinals.

Giants at Cowboys: Still not getting that whole "earth opens up and swallows the stadium" wish, am I? I think Giants, but this one really is a coin-toss.

Texans at Chargers: The Texans could go to the Super Bowl this year, and the Chargers, well, will not. Bet on it, and on the Texans.

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Picks for 2013

Back once again for your later (or immediate) mocking pleasure, my pre-season picks for this year's playoffs:

AFC East: Patriots

I don't love the Patriots this year. Well, I never love the Patriots, but you know what I mean. Huge amount of offensive personnel turnover, lots of offseason drama, and may I remind you that, ever since Belichick's cheating was uncovered, they've done precisely dick in the playoffs? Still, who else are you going with in this sad-sack division? The Dolphins? They've upgraded this year, but not that much. The Jets? With poor widdle Mark Sanchez always one snap away from being benched, Darelle Revis off to Tampa, and headcase Rex Ryan leading the circus, whose weight loss has additionally turned him into a real pill? The Bills? Get serious. They're likely to be starting an undrafted rookie at quarterback, at least initially. So the Pats take it by default.

AFC North: Ravens

Can the Ravens repeat? Probably not the Super Bowl win, but potentially at least their divisional title. The Bengals are the sleeper agent in this division, and, I think, could see the playoffs thanks to their outstanding defense, but I don't think they'll snatch the North from the defending champs.
 
AFC South: Texans

Gotta go with my former Team of Destiny here. Still love them to top the Colts this year, still love them as a Super Bowl pick. And the Titans and the Jags would have to get reassigned to AFC East to even hope to be contenders.

AFC West: Broncos

The Raiders remain a hot mess, and the Chargers aren't far behind at this point. Much as I'd love to pick the Chiefs, and I do think they will be much improved this year under Andy Reid (they could scarcely be worse), I just can't see going with anyone but the Broncos.

AFC Wildcard: Colts and Bengals

And I think there's a reasonable chance the Colts take South and the Texans go wildcard, slightly less so for a Ravens/Bengals flip.

NFC East: Redskins, with an asterisk

The Redskins are the putative favorites, but the question on everyone's mind is: how is RGIII's knee REALLY doing? He's young and stubborn, and I'm getting the feeling that maybe Mike Shanahan isn't quite as careful with his players as he should be. On the other hand, getting Brian Orakpo back is going to help, too. And Kirk Cousins isn't terrible. But it all comes down to: can the Skins keep RGIII healthy for 16 games? (Doesn't that sound familiar, Eagles fans?) If not, this one goes to the Giants. The division is too weak to produce a wildcard team, though.

NFC North:Packers

A couple of weeks ago, I was in Milwaukee with a client. The first night I was there, my main contact took me and a few of her colleagues out to dinner. It was all ladies, and they mostly weren't big football fans, so I tried to keep from geeking out too much on them. But they did ask what I thought were their Packers' chances this year. Divisional win, no contest. As you know, I love the Lions, but no consistency (although I am excited to see what Reggie Bush can do for them). I don't think Adrian Peterson can pull off back to back 2000 yard seasons. And I don't think Lovie Smith was the problem with the Bears. Their problem rhymes with Make Multer. The competition here isn't quite as sorry as it is in the AFC East, but none of these teams can reasonably compete with ARodg, who may be becoming, in his unassuming way, a legendarily gifted quarterback.

NFC South: Saints

Sean Payton's back. Did he bring the Saints' mojo with him? I think the answer is yes, although it will be interesting to see if Rob Ryan fares any better in New Orleans than he did in Dallas. I'm not discounting the Falcons (see below), or, for that matter, the Buccaneers, who are also much better this year, or even the Panthers, if Cam Newton can regain his rookie magic. But I gotta go with my heart here.

NFC West: Seahawks

Is the NFC West the toughest division in football at this point? Well, not if you include the Cardinals and, to a lesser degree, the Rams. But the 49ers and Seahawks both remain excellent teams. My qualms about the 49ers come down to: will lightening strike twice? I don't think they're quite good enough to repeat, and, as long as Russell Wilson has another good year, I think the Seahawks can ride an outstanding defense to a divisional title.

NFC Wildcard: 49ers and Falcons

I think both teams have a better than average chance of swapping with the divisional opponents I've picked. 

Team of Destiny

After last year's embarrassing 4-12 finish, I'm going with my Eagles. The offense retains the potential to be outstanding, particularly as they get accustomed to the Chipster. The special teams appears to be much improved. Admittedly, it would've been impossible to get worse, but they do seem to be making significant progress under Dave Fipp. The defensive shift from 4-3 to 3-4, with 4-3 personnel (Trent Cole, don't lose heart!), and their nearly complete lack of a secondary means that opposing teams will put up a lot of points, and I expect plenty of shoot-out games. But, depending on how the next few offseasons go, and what happens with the quarterbacks, I see the Eagles being ready to make some noise in the postseason again before too long.

Don't like my predictions? Check out:

ESPN
NFL Network
Sports Illustrated
Bleacher Report
More Sports Illustrated

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Preseason Game 3: Two Thoughts

Eagles 31, Jaguars 24, Saturday, August 24, 2013

I'm not going to do a full game recap since it took so long for the game to broadcast - and me to have time to watch it - here in DC. For a detailed review, check out Iggles Blitz. For a more brief review, check out Bleeding Green Nation.

Observation One: Tommy Lawlor says not to panic, and I respect Tommy, but the biggest thing I took

Imaginary post-pick dialogue: "Srsly, Mike. WTF?"

away from the game was, "Bad Mike is back ALREADY?" Actually, of course, it's not Bad Mike - it's Inconsistent Mike Who Occasionally Makes Head-Smackingly Bad Decisions (Dude, why are you trying to throw the ball away WHILE JUMPING?!?!), which is, in some ways, worse. If he was just Bad Mike, the Chipster could just be all, "Whoops! First time head coaching in the pros here. I *meant* to say Nick Foles is the Philadelphia Eagles' starting quarterback for the 2013 season. My bad." I'm not panicking, Tommy. Really. Deep breaths.

Observation Two: I need to get to work on my annual preseason playoff predictions post, and I have NO idea what to say about the NFC East. I don't think RGIII is 100%, and I think there's a better than even chance Shanny throws away the 'Skins future getting him back on the field too quick, the preseason has not been kind to the Giants from an injury perspective, the Cowboys...no. Just no. And the Eagles are not going to be good this year. Maybe in the future, but not now. It's a puzzlement. 

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Preseason Game 2: What Did We Learn?

Eagles 14, Panthers 9, Thursday, August 15, 2013

We learned:

• The offense can put up points, regardless of who's playing.
• Nick Foles starts every game with a #smh Keystone Kops type flub (Week 1: strip sack. Week 2: throwing a pick in the endzone. I shudder to think what will happen next week). Fortunately, he seems able to shake it off.
• The very mention of "special teams" will no longer send Eagles fans into a rage fog. We'll be able to watch kickoffs and punts and returns without large quantities of shots and/or wanting to repeatedly smash our heads into the coffee table.
• The defense looks better (where do you have to go from the bottom but up?). On the one hand, they were playing the Panthers, but on the other hand, they shut down Cam Newton pretty effectively. Then again, we don't yet know if 2013 Cam will be freshman Cam or sophomore Cam. So that might not be that impressive a feat.
• Shady is full of win. Well, we already knew that, of course, but it's nice to be reminded.
• Lane Johnson is looking like a wise use of that #4 pick. We'll see if that assessment holds up once defenses get more tricky.

Additionally:

Brandon Boykin may be my new favorite Eagle (see above RE: special teams).

Felix Jones is going to be cut. Mark my words. Good riddance, Cowboy (never liked him).

Remember Vick's end of half Hail Mary pick? Remember how DJax tackled Panthers' cornerback Josh Norman? That was some bad-ass shit from a guy who's not much bigger than me. Also, Josh, you should be embarrassed. Srsly.

Edited to add: thought I posted this a week ago. Apparently, Blogger doesn't agree. Sigh. Sorry it's late. Recap of game 3 coming later today (took me a while to be able to get/see a recording here in DC).

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Thoughts on Pre-Season Game 1

Friday, August 9, 2013

Eagles 22 - Patriots 31

Regardless of who you're rooting for in the QB competition, both Vick and Foles looked sharp in their first outings of the 2013 season. Vick opened with a quick "looks like the Eagles we know & love" TD drive that featured a long pass to my boy Jason Avant and a beautiful TD to DeSean (-->) that gives me hope that we'll see the return of 2009 DeSean rather than 2011 DeSean.

Foles got off to a rough start with the strip sack, but came back strong with efficient TD drive of his own, capped off with a nice short pass to Bryce Brown.

Matt Barkley, well, looks like a rookie. Nothing to see here (yet). Move along.

Of course new HC Chip Kelly didn't open up the playbook, but we did see quite a bit of his no huddle hand signal style. I'm wondering/hoping that that will be a major benefit in some of the noisier enemy stadiums later this season.

It's possible special teams won't be the typical disaster this year. Well, as long as Jon Dorenbos's concussion isn't too serious and he can play. Brent Celek should never attempt to long snap again as long as he lives, so help him God.

The defense. Oh my. Can we go back to talking about the offense? No? It was pretty sad. Tom Brady and all, but the Patriots have pretty much an entirely new offense other than Brady, and he tore up our secondary even with a bunch of nOObs. Ouch. Work in progress, work in progress, work in progress. I hope.

 

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Sail On, Big 5

By now I'm sure you heard that Big 5 retired as an Eagle on Monday, and that the Eagles are going to retire his number when Andy Reid's Chiefs come to town on September 19. 

I know there's been a lot of controversy about Donnie Mac over the years. His critics called him a choker who could never win the big game.

Well, if you've followed this blog at all, you know I've always been a Donovan apologist. In his official retirement press conference, owner Jeff Lurie called him both a "franchise-changing QB" and "the greatest quarterback in the history of the Philadelphia Eagles." I agree wholeheartedly.

As Chef Spouse points out, the numbers don't lie. McNabb is the franchise leader in:

Regular season wins (92)
Playoff wins (9)
Passing yards (32,873)
Completions (2,801)

He's also one of only three players in NFL history to amass more than 35,000 passing yards and 3,000 rushing yards, joining John Elway and Fran Tarkenton.

And he brought us a lot of great moments and great memories: winning his first career start (against the Skins), rushing for 125 yards against same a year later, winning his first playoff start (against the Buccaneers), 4th-and-26, throwing for four touchdowns on a broken leg against the Cardinals, the epic scramble against Dallas (that finished with a DEEP completed pass), the 44-6 beat down against same (that shot of Tony Romo facedown on the turf after the 3,254,463rd sack he'd taken that day was Chef Spouse's desktop wallpaper for, like, three years),

And, of course, this:

Or you could just watch the video over at PhiladelphiaEagles.com

As I recently pointed out to Chef Spouse, it was a great decade to be an Eagles fan. And it is the ending of an era.

Thanks for everything, 5. 

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2013 Season Football Party Schedule

It's July, the Eagles are at training camp, and it's time for me to start gearing up for the 2013 season!

First order of business: when will the monthly football parties be in 2013?

Sunday, September 8

Although the Eagles don't start their season until week one's Monday Night Football matchup with the Redskins, we'll host our first party on opening day. (And please, don't even start with me about the Thursday night game on September 5. The NFL is just doing that to piss me off.)

Sunday, October 20

October is a big month for the Birds, with three divisional games. I'm opting for hosting the day they play the Cowboys at home.

Sunday, November 17

The Eagles will be hosting the Redskins in their second matchup of the season.

Sunday, December 1

This will also be the date of the Spark holiday party/annual pre-ASAE Technology Conference football party. The Eagles will play the Cardinals, and we'll be hosting a lot of out-of-towners.

As usual, we'll be ready for you any time after noon on game day. I'll post the game viewing schedule and menu in advance, so you can choose appropriately for what you'd like to contribute. Not sure what to bring? Booze is always appreciated.

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Super Bowl 47 Picks

AKA the HarBowl, and yes, 47, because I'm just not playing with Roman numerals any more.

The Ravens and 49ers face off this Sunday. Both teams have good stories. It's Ray Lewis's *last* time at the rodeo. Colin Kaepernick came in mid-season and set the NFC West on fire. Plus, Chef Spouse's boy David Akers. The 49ers have never lost a Super Bowl, and they've played in - and won - five, behind only the Steelers. (The Ravens have also never lost a Super Bowl, but they've only played in one so far.) Also, Harbaugh v. Harbaugh, which is like Spy v. Spy, only in color and with fewer explosives (THAT WE KNOW OF).

As usual, what I'm mostly rooting for is a good game.

Well, unless the Eagles are playing, in which case it's cool if they win 59 to 3.

Or if the Patriots are playing, in which case I hope they all come down with norovirus and have to forfeit.

Or if they Cowboys are playing...wait, what am I saying? That's not likely to happen any time soon. Heh.

I've got the 49ers. I'm not putting money on it or anything, but I think the teams are pretty evenly matched on defense, and I don't think the Ravens will be able to keep up with the 49ers scoring juggernaut.

I just hope it doesn't come down to kicking, because since his mid-season double hernia surgery, David Akers has not been brilliant.

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2012 Conference Championship Picks

"So at last we meet again for the first time for the last time..."

Both of our #2 teams this week came [this] close to the Super Bowl last year. And I desperately wanted a 49ers-Ravens, Harbaugh v. Harbaugh Super Bowl last year. This year, I may get my wish.

49ers at Falcons: As the Seahawks proved last week, it is damn hard to go into Atlanta and win. Still, I can't see Matty Ice and the Dirty Birds overcoming the #3 defense the week after they put down the #4 defense, even if they did get to sleep in their own beds all week. Also, the Hawks put up some impressive numbers towards the end of the regular season, but not Colin Kaepernick numbers. Gotta go 49ers. Don't let me down, guys.

Ravens at Patriots: Chef Spouse and I were talking about the games this afternoon, and I said, "If it's another stupid Patriots Super Bowl, I'm not watching!" He responded, "Yes, you will." And I said, "No! I'll watch the commercials, but F those guys."

I really do feel that way.

Chef Spouse, in the meantime, has a man crush on Ray Lewis.

By rights, the Pats should win this game. Then again, the Pats took the Ravens out LAST year, too.

"Never pick against the Pats at home...."

Except this week. I'm going Ravens.

Side note: welcome to Philly, Chip Kelly. You weren't my top choice - I wanted Lovie Smith - but you were lots of other people's top choice including, apparently, Jeff Lurie (which is all that matters). The NFL ain't college, and Philadelphia ain't Oregon. Hope you're ready. 

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2012 Divisional Weekend Picks

The AFC games are obvious this weekend. Seeing as I'm about 99.87% sure the Broncos are headed to the Super Bowl (kick-ass defense and a reinvigorated Peyton Manning, anyone?), I think *this* will be the last game of Ray Lewis's career. And while the Texans are solid on D, too, I don't think they're solid enough to overcome the Tom Brady-bot at home, particularly since Matt Schaub is shaky in playoff games, and they're playing in Foxborough. I'm going Broncos and Pats, as, I suspect, is the entire rest of the NFL game picking world.

The NFC, on the other hand, seems not nearly as clear. The Seahawks and the Redskins, on the offensive side of the ball at least, are similar teams, and I thought for sure that homefield and the Skins strong run defense would carry the day last weekend. I did not foresee that the field at FedEx would look like a hog waller, that RGIII would re-injure his knee in the first quarter, and that Shanny would then inexplicably not take him out of the game, certainly costing the Skins the game and perhaps costing RGIII the 2013 season. This has been an interesting week to be a follower of the NFL here in DC.

Anyway, returning to this weekend's games, as Chef Spouse is fond of pointing out, the Falcons are the #1 ranked team in the NFC and no one gives them any respect. Including me, apparently, because I'm picking the Seahawks.

Turning to the 49ers/Packers matchup, the big story has been the first meeting of the 2005 draft class quarterbacks. Except, of course, that Colin Kaepernick is starting for the 49ers. And, Aa-Rodg magic aside, I think he and their stout defense are going to carry the 49ers to the NFC Championship game.

Of course, if I'm right about all this, we're looking at a VERY interesting conference championship weekend, with Peyton versus Tom, part I don't even know how many, and, in the NFC, division rivals meeting for a shot at the Super Bowl.

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2012 Wildcard Weekend Picks

Bengals at Texans: The Texans finished the 2012 season slumping, going 2-3 in their last 5 games, and losing the #1 seed. The Bengals finished hot, going 4-1 and playing themselves into the playoffs. The Texans won't be able to get much done through the air against the Bengals, but Arian Foster should be able to get it done on the ground. That and homefield should get the Texans past the Bengals, but I suspect their ride will end immediately after.

Viking at Packers: Adrian Peterson is a beast, no doubt, but I do not see the Vikings beating the Pack two weeks in a row, particularly not at Lambeau in January, and even if Greg Jennings would rather play inside. Packers.

Colts at Ravens: This week, Ray Lewis has announced that he's retiring after this season. He also announced that he'll be playing in the playoffs. And Joe Flacco hasn't exactly been lighting it up recently. And Andrew Luck has. But the Ravens still have Ray Rice, and the Colts have a rookie QB and a defense that is putrid against the run. And there is NO WAY the team lets a wildcard loss be Ray-Ray's last game. NO WAY. Ravens.

Seahawks at Redskins: This is a VERY INTERESTING matchup. Two dynamic rookie QBs. Two powerful running games. Two teams no one expected to see in the post-season this year. The Redskins are on fire going into the playoffs, winning their last seven games. The Seahawks are on fire going into the playoffs, winning their last five, including hanging 42 points on the #3 defense in the league. The NFL honchos chose wisely in putting this game on Sunday at 4:30. It should be excellent. The Seahawks should definitely go to the air against the Skins, who are almost dead last against the pass. But both of these teams have made their bones with their ground games. And if it's true that offense wins games and defense wins championships, I'm going to have to go with the Skins, who are better against the run than the Hawks.

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Walk of Shame

Before I get to talking about the playoffs, here's how I ended up this season:

Regular season picks:

166-89-1

That's 65% (well, 64.8% to be precise).

My two best weeks were week 17, when I went 14-2 on my picks, and week 4, when I went 13-2 and correctly picked the final score of the Eagles/Giants matchup (19-17 Eagles win, in case the stench of the rest of the season has wiped it from your memory).

Most weeks I hovered in the 9-10-11 picks correct range, but a few bad weeks (week 3, 5-11, and week 6 4-10) really killed me.

On the up side, I did better than almost all the ESPN analysts. Go me!

Things are not so rosy when it comes to my pre-season playoff picks.

In the AFC, I had the Patriots, Ravens, and Texans to win their respective divisions.

I did NOT see the Broncos coming. I had the sad-sack newly head coach-less Chargers.

For wildcard, I had the Steelers (not an unreasonable pick) and the Raiders (crackalacka pick). Did not have the Bengals. Did not believe Andrew Luck and ChuckStrong could turn the Colts around this quickly. You know the Texans are not happy about that.

So I'm a straight .500 on the AFC.

In the NFC, I had the Falcons and 49ers to win their respective divisions.

I wish I knew how to quit the Lions. Sigh.

I don't think anyone had the Skins for NFC East, nor did most of us think the Eagles were going to implode quite so spectacularly.

I did have the Packers in as a playoff team, definitely at least wildcard, possible division winner.

I also had the G-men. And again, I don't think anyone saw the Seahawks coming.

In the NFC, I'm only at .333 unless we want to grade generously and give me the Packers, in which case, I also got to .500 there.

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End of an Era

Eagles at Giants, Sunday, December 30, 2012 

This Sunday featured many exciting games with playoff implications. Sadly, the Eagles game was not one of them. The 42-7 rout was a microcosm of everything that's been wrong with the Eagles in 2012. And that's all I have to say about that.

Well, other than to point out to the gloating Giants fans: I realize that the last time you saw the Eagles in 2012 was when we beat you on Sunday Night Football at the end of September, so you might not know. But hanging 42 points on this team is nothing to be proud of. Pissing on Andy Reid's grave - which is what you're doing now - just shows a complete lack of class. And 9-7 and 4-12 will look pretty much the same next week, when both teams are watching the playoffs from their man caves. Only the Eagles scored a higher draft pick.

Now that I have that off my chest, I want to talk about Andy Reid a little.

I am, as my bio states, a life-long Eagles fan. My earliest football memory was when Dick Vermeil came to Philly. I was 5. I have fond memories of Sunday afternoons in front of the TV, hoagies in hand, cheering for Jaws, Wilbert Montgomery, Harold Carmichael, Mike Quick, Herm Edwards,
the Minister of Defense Reggie White, and later on, under Buddy Ryan, Randall Scramble, Cris Cater, Andre Waters, Jerome Brown, and Seth Joyner. By that point, I was in college and used to go over to the only all-male dorm on campus every weekend to watch the games, which were on in the lounges.

And then I graduated and moved out of state for grad school. This was way before the Sunday Ticket era, and I went to grad school at a college football mad university in a town with no pro team nearby. On the upside, I missed part of the Rich Kotite and pretty much all of the Ray Rhodes years. On the downside, I lost touch with my beloved Eagles.

And then I moved to the home city of a divisional rival. And Jeff Lurie hired this unknown quarterbacks coach from Green Bay named Andy Reid, who proceeded to draft this guy out of Syracuse (not exactly a football powerhouse) Donovan McNabb.

And then: Duce Staley. Brian Westbrook. Brian Dawkins. Hugh Douglas. John Runyan, David Akers. Jeremiah Trotter. Troy Vincent. Darwin Walker. Tre Thomas. Lito Sheppard. Sheldon Brown. 

And then the rest followed: five playoff appearances in a row. Four NFC championship games in a row. The Super Bowl loss to those big cheaters, the Patriots. The 2005 disaster year. The miraculous run into the playoffs under Jeff Garcia in 2006, after McNabb went down with the sports hernia. Then McNabb down again in 2007 with the ACL tear. Then the equally miraculous run back to the NFC Championship game in 2008. Playoffs again in 2009 and 2010.

Even though - and it's a big "but" - the Eagles never brought home the Lombardi trophy, Andy Reid brought this team and this city the most sustained period of success we've ever seen. He changed expectations for all of us. He gave me back my fandom.

I hope he takes a little time off. After the past two years, which have been extremely difficult both personally and professionally, I think he needs it. After that? I wish him nothing but success wherever he goes. Godspeed, Big Red. Unless you goes to Dallas, in which case all bets are off.

I will pick the playoff matchups and recap the playoff games, even though the Eagles are out, so I'll share my thoughts about the 12 teams when I pick Wildcard Weekend. I *will* say this now: at the beginning of the season, I was thinking 49ers/Texans Super Bowl. Not anymore.

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2012 Week 17 Picks

This is it - the final week of the 2012 regular season.

I have plenty of complaints with the NFL (I hate Thursday night football, I wish Joe Buck and Troy Aikman would go do something - anything - else, some of the rules make no goddamn sense, and they often don't seem to be applied equally, at least not if your name is Manning or Brady), but one thing I LOVE is that the final Sunday is *just* Sunday, it's all divisional and lots of playoff scenarios are on the line, at least for the NFC. (Things are pretty settled in the AFC.)

Meanwhile, the Eagles limp to the finish (both figuratively and literally), facing the Giants in New Jersey. And the Giants don't really have much to play for, either. Don't get me wrong - they aren't mathematically eliminated, and the G-men are going to win Sunday. But it is highly unlikely that the Cowboys, Bears, and Vikings will ALL lose.

Also, I'm expecting Andy Reid to be let go first thing Monday morning. You definitely did not read that here first - EVERYONE expects Andy Reid to be let go first thing Monday morning.

Moving on:

Buccaneers at Falcons: The Falcons have nothing to play for, and I'm guessing they'll rest their starters as a result, despite recent (Colts) evidence of what a mistake that usually is. I see the Bucs winning this one.

Jets at Bills: Rex Ryan's last game at the Jets head coach? Maybe. The Jets should be able to win this one, but with the QB mess (Sanchez is benched! No, he's the starting QB!), I figure morale is at an all-time low for Gang Green, and the Bills will sneak a win. Not that it really matters.

Ravens at Bengals: I don't think either team can improve their seeding with a win - Bengals will b #6, Ravens will be #4 - and honestly, although I'm sure no one wants to play the Pats right now, facing a divisional rival two weeks in a row is even worse. With both teams likely to rest some starters and not really be that invested in the outcome, I'm going with the Bengals at home.

Bears at Lions: I know I keep picking the Lions and they keep losing. I know the Bears are fighting for a playoff spot. I'm feeling Lions, but...gotta go Bears.

Texans at Colts: The Texans have stumbled a bit of late, but the bye and possibly homefield are on the line. They'll find a way to win, even against a highly motivated Colts team at home. I think.

Panthers at Saints: Nothing to play for but pride, but the Saints don't lose at home.

Browns at Steelers: Same and same.

Jaguars at Titans: Bleh. Also, Titans. Not that ANYONE will be watching this game.

Chief at Broncos: Broncos, definitely, who also still have a shot at both the bye and homefield.

Packers at Vikings: This is going to be a great game, I think. The Pack needs the win for the bye. The Vikings need the win for a wildcard spot, and all they have to do to get it *is* win. Logically, the Pack should win, but I think the Vikes will dig deep and surprise them.

Dolphins at Patriots: Patriots.

Raiders at Chargers: The Chargers will probably win at home, but it won't change the fact that Norv is going to be be fired on Monday, too.

Rams at Seahawks: Should've listened to myself last week and NOT picked against the Seahawks at home. Not making that mistake again. Seahawks.

Cardinals at 49ers: 49ers who, if I'm right about the Pack losing, will snake that bye week right out from under Green Bay.

Redskins at Cowboys: It's for all the NFC East marbles, and the Redskins GOT this one. The Cowboys will choke. Glad Monday's a day off, because this should be a great game that I'm going to stay up to see the end of and will probably be too hyped to sleep after.

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How Eagles Of Them!

Eagles v. Redskins, Sunday, December 23, 2012 

I was in two minds about this game. On the one hand, it's clear this was Andy Reid's last home game, and I was hoping the team could send him on his way with a win. On the other hand, top 5 pick! And on the third hand, if I may borrow one of yours, of the remaining choices to win the division, I'd most like to see it go to the Skins, which means they have to win out.

Looks like your hand is the lucky one.

Well, at least luckier than Nick Foles, who apparently broke his hand in the loss. Guess Vick is coming back for the final game of 2012? Assuming he passed his concussion tests finally? What's Trent Edwards up to? Isn't Jason Avant behind him? Maybe we give #81 a shot next week?

Oy. It's 2005 all over again, only without the "fun" of coming off a Super Bowl loss.

Stud of the week: Jeremy Maclin who, as Bleeding Green Nation points out, is quietly having a decent season. (Also, it was good to see Shady back and feeling spry.) Mac scored one TD, and had Nick Foles put a little more zip on that final pass, would've tied up the game.

Well, not the final-final pass of the game. That would be Foles' intentional grounding muff on 3rd and goal with two seconds left and a chance to tie, leading to a 10 second run off and "the game is over."

How Eagles of them!

It's been like the f-ing Keystone Kops out there most of the season. And was a poetically apt way to finish out the home games for the 2012 season.

As has been the case in so many games this year, the team did some things right, and many more things wrong. They played well enough to stay in it, but not well enough to win. Turnovers killed them, and when it came down to it and they needed to dig deep for the extra effort to tie it up, they screwed up in a genuinely comical fashion.

Yep. Your 2012 Philadelphia Eagles.

They can't even really play spoiler next week - not that their chances of beating the Giants in New Jersey are very good - because, although not technically eliminated, it would take not one, but about 17 miracles for the Giants to make the post-season.

Or, in football parlance: "The NFL has announced that the Giants-Eagles game on December 30 will air at 1 pm."

A final note: not to take anything away from RGIII or Andrew Luck, but Russell Wilson is quietly having an outstanding rookie season in Seattle, too. In the past three games, they've put up 58 points (on the Cardinals), 50 (on the Bills), and 42 (on the 49ers' #2 ranked defense in the league). You know how the Super Bowl is all about getting hot at the right time? The Seahawks are ON FIRE right now.

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2012 Week 16 picks

On the road, so fast fast (no, I did not recap Eagles/Bengals. Thankfully, I as at a holiday party and missed most of the game.)

Redskins at Eagles: Redskins

Falcons at Lions: it's crazy, I know, but I've got the Lions.

Rams at Buccaneers: Rams

Colts at Chiefs: Colts

Saints at Cowboys: it pains me, but Cowboys

Bills at Dolphins: Fins (home field)

Patriots at Jaguars: Pats

Chargers at Jets: both teams are an utter disaster (and as an Eagles fan I ow from disaster), but I've got the Jets. Not that it matters.

Titans at Packers: Packers, who are playing for their seeding, over Titans, who are playing for nothing

Raiders at Panthers: Panthers, not that it matters.

Bengals at Steelers: the playoffs are on the line, and the Steelers are reeling, but I have to believe they can win at home.

Vikings at Texans: Texans

Browns at Broncos: Broncos

Bears at Cardinals: Bears

Giants at Ravens: Giants, but I think it will be a close game

49ers at Seahawks: Talk about looking at a good game! I think the 49ers have this one, but taking on the Seahawks at home is never easy.

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2012 Week 15 Picks

This week - tonight, in fact - the Eagles will be hosting the Bengals at the Linc.

On the one hand, the monkey's off their back - they finally won a game.

On the other hand, the Bengals don't have the worst-ranked pass defense.

Also, they are currently holding the #7 playoff spot in the AFC, looking up at slumping division rival the Steelers.

They have every reason to bring it, and I expect them to.

Bengals.

In the rest of the matchups:

Redskins at Browns: The big question in DC this week isn't the fiscal cliff or what's going on in Syria or the upcoming inauguration, or the ever-amusing local corruption. It's, "Will RGIII play Sunday?" The Skins are facing the Browns. Don't know that it will matter. Redskins.

Colts at Texans: Man, the Texans must be reeling from the ass-whupping they took at the hands of the Pats Monday night. And you know Matt Schaub is thinking, "ONE year? I get ONE year where the Colts aren't good? Goddamnit!" But I think they'll pull this one out. Texans.

Jaguars at Dolphins: Dolphins. To quote the Bleacher Report: things Nick Foles is slower than - the Jaguars selling out a home game.

Broncos at Ravens: This may be the best Broncos team we've seen since...Elway? I don't even know. They're good. REALLY good. And the Ravens are sputtering on offense. Broncos.

Vikings at Rams: I can't figure out the NFC North at all this year. The teams win when they should lose and lose when they should win. I've got the Rams at home, but who knows?

Buccaneers at Saints: The Bucs have nearly the worst defense in the league, and THE worst against the pass (see above re: last week against the Eagles), while the Saints have, well, Drew Brees. Last week the Seahawks put up 58 points on the Cardinals. Brees could do that against the Bucs in the first half, unless his arm gets tired. Saints.

Giants at Falcons: Don't pick against the Falcons at home.

Packers at Bears: See above RE: NFC North, and I'm going with the Bears because homefield, but I think this game will be close.

Lions at Cardinals: Lions. Don't think the Cards have an answer for Megatron.

Seahawks at Bills: Seahawks, who are quietly pretty damn good with their rookie QB, Russell Wilson, who's getting very little attention because Luck and RGIII, also Seattle.

Panthers at Chargers: Talk about inconsistent teams! Anything could happen in this game. I mean anything: clown cars, Rip Torn, flash mob, you name it. I think Panthers, but I wouldn't put money on it.

Chiefs at Raiders: Chiefs. Also, who cares?

Steelers at Cowboys: Think the Steelers can keep the wheels on the bus long enough to beat the Cowboys? I'd like to say yes, but I really don't think so. Cowboys.

49ers at Patriots: Possible Super Bowl preview? Nah - AFC's going to be the Broncos, mark my words. The Pats are pretty hard to beat at home, which I should've remembered when picking the Texans last week, but in Kaepernick I trust. 49ers.

Jets at Titans: Bleh. I'll be in NOLA Monday night, which is great - I won't feel bad at all about skipping this one. Also, for what it's worth, Jets.

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They Won. #Shocked.

Eagles at Buccaneers, Sunday, December 9, 2012 

Holy shit. The Eagles actually won a game.

I know, I know, this does not help the team's draft position, and that's pretty much all that's on the line at this point.

But how nice was it to see Big Red and Howard Mudd hugging after the game. And not "bro-hugging" either, but a big old "I'm about to cry" clinch.

Stud of the week: Could it be anyone but Jason Avant? He had an amazing game. No TDs, but 7 catches for 133 yards, including an amazing one-handed circus catch. Just Google it - you'll have no trouble finding it. Shout out to Jeremy Maclin, too, for catching the game winner as time expired.

Good thing the receivers had a big day because, thanks to the Bucs' #1 ranked running defense, Nick Foles was the Birds' top rusher on the day.

Speaking of Foles, I'm still not sure he's The Guy, but I'll bet he gets a shot at the starting spot for 2013 at this point.  He played well, particularly when he needed to bring the Birds back from being down by 11 with 7 minutes left. And for once, burning the timeouts to save the clock worked, as the D, which had been up and down all day, was able to come up with a stop when they needed it, with about 3 minutes to go. And then Foles got sacked right before the 2 minute warning, and nobody panicked. Or gave up.

In the end, it doesn't change anything. The Eagles will finish at the bottom of the NFC East. Andy Reid will be fired in January. Mike Vick will not be an Eagle, and may not even be playing football. Same for King Dunlap. I'm sure someone will pick up Nnamdi Asomugha, but he won't be Philly anymore, either.

But on a day when the Bucs were honoring the team that, according to Chef Spouse's unending bile, stole the Eagles' Super Bowl from them (if I had a dollar for every time he's said "2002 was OUR YEAR!" I'd be a rich woman), it was nice to be able to savor a victory.

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